Greenhouse Gases, Feedbacks and Scenarios

What is the relationship between increasing amounts of greenhouse gases and global climate change?
As we know, greenhouse gases are beneficial to life on earth and have been established as a very important function in our atmosphere.  The Woods Hole Research Center http://www.whrc.org/resources/primer_greenhouse.html makes the comparison of greenhouse gases to a blanket that insulates the heat from our bodies and traps it in keeping us warm during a cold winter night; greenhouse gases work in a very similar fashion.  These particular gas molecules in the air trap infrared radiation from the earth originally heated up by the sun.  According to the NASA climate change webpage http://climate.nasa.gov/causes/ the most common greenhouse gases are water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and CFC's (clorofluorocarbons).  Unfortunately greenhouse gases can be a double-edged sword in the sense that while they provide us with a way to trap the sun's heat for warmth when the gases become more excessive there is a thickening of the atmosphere.  Referring back to the "blanket" metaphor, the end result is that now we are experiencing an atmosphere that is beginning to feel more like having 3 or 4 full quilts.
While man-made factories, automobiles and other pollutants are displacing unnecessary amounts of these greenhouse gases in our atmosphere our planet is feeling the effects.  The most commonly known is the warming of the atmospheric temperatures and oceanic temperatures.  This leads to increasingly high temperatures during summer time, more glacial melting and sea level rising.  Increased warm air and moisture are key ingredients for more frequent and larger hurricanes and other tropical storms.  The excess heat is also responsible for some areas to become more dry than they previously were, and some areas to precipitate more due to more water vaporization.  Also, ecosystems are being disturbed by the early warming after winter, as well as agriculture being impacted by heat waves, floods, droughts and displacement of foreign consumers due to shifts in nearby ecosystems. 

Imperfect understanding of climate feedback is a major cause of uncertainty and concern about global warming.  How can the use of climate models help in the understanding of these uncertainties?
Climate models are a very useful tool in helping climatologists and other scientists in making predictions for climate patterns, and possible outcomes given certain variables.  According to the Windows 2 the Universe webpage http://www.windows2universe.org/earth/climate/cli_models4.html the basic format for climate models is a trial-and-error process of applying certain mathematical equations in a simulation and determining how they fair against actual recorded data.  When there is no significant difference in the data, the scientists will then use that mathematical formula for future predictions.  This is constantly done to ensure quality and accuracy of the information being provided for data analysis.  There are some uncertainties with climate-related data due to the amount of feedbacks and forcings found within a climate area as well as the fact that not all of the systems within a climate are 100% understood by science today.  This is why it is so critical for research to continue to gather information in order to provide the most accurate climate models.  Not only are they important for our understanding of what our impact as a human race has been on the planet, but also predicting what it can be.


With regards to the six emission scenarios, describe any evidence existing today that would suggest to you one or more of the scenarios may occur within the next 100 years.  What key uncertainties (climate forcings and feedbacks) would exist for these scenarios as a whole, or specific ones individually?
The  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios give about as accurate of predictions as there can be considering the model is based on our future in 100 years.  When you observe the chart on "Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions" it is very apparent which scenarios would be most and least favorable.  A1F1 and A2 are the riskiest scenarios for our environment, and unfortunately the more likely to occur.  Our dependence on fossil fuels has only recently begun to see even the slightest bit of attention after the highest gas prices in our nation's history, the political ties with a war fought on foreign soil and the last few decades having record heat waves and tropical storms.  There have been certain steps in the right direction such as the development of hybrid and electric cars and research/funding going toward alternative energy sources (photovoltaic cells, wind turbines, etc).  The ecological problems our planet faces may likely remain being second seat to the economical problems since those with the power to pass legislation tend to be more focused on the latter issue; the one that most directly affects their pocketbooks.  Unless our country, and others begin to really invest and make a conscious decision that fossil fuels need to be used as minimally as possible and alternative energy sources needs to take precedence we are definitely looking at one of the mentioned scenarios.  The other scenarios are definitely possible, but will take a long time for us to really see the long-term effects.  It is very difficult for people today to make sacrifices and take actions that will be taking place long after their time is passed.  People (especially in the US) want results immediately,  and tend to lack patience.  This can truly be a virtue that saves our planet or we can let the vice of greed take our planet to the point of no return when repair is impossible and our situation worsens.

Climate Forcings and Feedbacks

Which climate forcings and feedbacks are most prevalent in either your local area or in the United States as a whole and why might this be so?

According to the NASA (Earth's Observatory), there are slight natural forcings such as the Sun's 11 year irradiance cycle, however, it is the manmade forcings that are the primary contributors to global climate change feedbacks.  Of the many forcings affecting our planet, there are several that specifically affect the United States. According to the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), there are some specific forcings that are directly impacting North America.  This includes increases in winter flooding and heat waves.  Not only are there temperature and moisture effects, but also damage to forests.  Dryness leads to increased risk of forest fires reducing the carbon dioxide being pulled from the atmosphere.  Finally, even our economy is hurting from global climate change when you look at agriculture.  Some of the most important regions are not receiving the amounts of precipitation that they are used to compounded with increased water vaporization from increased atmospheric temperatures.  These, coincidentally, are the primary problems that we are facing here in Las Vegas.  Lake Mead has continually seen decreasing levels, and we have been facing increasingly high temperatures.  Some of the forcings to these feedbacks locally are increased release of carbon dioxide through burning of fossil fuels, smog, and other pollutants which in turn lead to less of the Sun's heat being released and more of it being absorbed.

What resources have you located to help you and your students understand climate forcings and feedbacks?

The NASA website provides several articles, graphs and simulations that provide a plethora of information and insight with quantitative scientific data that supports and reinforces the understandings of both the forcings and feedbacks involved with global climate change.  The University of Colorado at Boulder (http://phet.colorado.edu/) provides an excellent simulation showing the temperature increases corresponding with the increased carbon dioxide levels.  This visual representation gives the students an opportunity to make a direct connection between temperature increases with carbon dioxide release.  The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research also provides the forcings and feedbacks by region.  Global climate change is obviously occurring across the entire planet, however, there are certain forcings and feedbacks that are specific to each region.  Along with these resources, my students also watched the documentary "An Inconvenient Truth" and went to a presentation on climate change by a representative from www.acespace.org/.

Web 2.0

As I am discovering, blogging is an obvious tool that can be used to promote communication between teacher and student.  Once I become more familiar with this site and its functions I do intend on implementing it as part of my classes.  I already use a similar website used to provide the students with any presentations they have missed, or as a means to contact me when they are stuck on information or have missed school due to being sick (click here to view).  I believe that opening up a link to my blog will promote not only discussion on questions given to my students, but allow the students to view each other's thoughts and feel comfortable in debating and discussing ideas.  Students commonly feel "stupid" if they ask something in class and other students may laugh or snicker, where on a technological medium such as a blog some students that normally would not participate in a class are more comfortable writing and may feel more confident in voicing their opinion free of teasing or ridicule from other students.

This medium also provides a beneficial means of reflection for some learners that tend to need more time to gather their thoughts than what a classroom may permit.  Some students may also be able to reflect better in private than in front of their peers.  This also reinforces the students to break out of their comfort zone to share their thoughts and ideas that they may not have had the opportunity to share, or weren't comfortable sharing in a large group.  The blog could also be used for students to ask their own questions to be asked and answered by other students, thus promoting thought in higher levels of bloom's taxonomy.

How do NASA, STEM and PBL prepare the 21st century learner?

To briefly review the topic of the 21^st century learner; they are someone that will need to be agile and able to adapt to an ever changing world, will need to be competent at using several forms of technology and social media, able to conduct online research to find information, and be a logical critical thinker that can creatively problem-solve. Considering this list, NASA, STEM, and PBL are all individually unique yet together contain commonality in their goal of preparing leaners for their encounters with the 21^st century.

PBL is a method of not only identifying a problem, but determining the best and most efficient way to find a solution; much like when a light fixture in your breaks and you are trying to fix it. STEM is a multi-discipline method of understanding through questioning and investigating; similar to figuring out how it is supposed to work, the measurements, tools needed, and procedure to fix it. NASA is a phenomenal organization for science/technology information; just like a hardware store is a great place to do find home improvement renovations tools and get advice on your project. When the light fixture breaks you come up with a plan to fix it, figure out what you need to do, the go to Lowe’s to get what you need to finish the job. I believe that these three entities work in somewhat of a similar fashion. They can all help to increase efficiency in problem solving using intellect, critical thinking and some creativity.

The problems that this year’s kindergarteners will face in 2067 will obviously be more complex than a simple light fixture in their home; however, the process is relatively similar. They will need to identify the causation of certain problems and be able to design ways to most efficiently solve them using the best tools at their disposal. It is our job as educators to make sure that they have these abilities so that once they are the ones making decisions and solving problems they will construct plans that moral, environmentally conscious, economical, and proficient.

First Official Blog

So this is my very first official blog, more to come.  I'm definitely stepping outside my comfort zone on this one...